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Some power plants are still waiting for a new round of coal price rise is on the way
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The market is bullish, and traders are reluctant to sell**** Domestic prices have been continuously increased, with 950 yuan / ton of coal quoted in 5500 kcal market, 942 yuan / T of low sulfur, 850 yuan / T of 5000 kcal, and 830 yuan / T of sulfur; It is also understood that a large power plant in southern China directly mined 815 yuan / ton. The price acceptance of the power plant for port procurement has improved, and the market bullish expectation is constantly strengthening. Although there is fear of heights, the quotation is still rising, and there are continuous high price transactions, which further stimulates the nerves of the coal market. In terms of production area, sales situation continues to be hot, production capacity control is relatively strict, and coal pipe tickets of some coal mines in Erdos are used up in stages; End users and traders are scrambling for coal at the pithead, and the prices of coal mines are soaring. In some areas, the prices of coal mines have exceeded the points of last year's cold winter.
Some power plants have entered the maintenance mode this month due to the good power generation in April and no maintenance. As can be seen from the recent data of eight coastal provinces and coastal power plants, the daily consumption has decreased slightly due to the impact of maintenance, but the amount of coal stored has not increased. Corresponding to this, some downstream end users did not make strong replenishment, but kept waiting and expecting the policy to limit the coal price. However, it is getting closer and closer to the peak summer. The temperature in Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other places has broken through 30 ℃ successively, and the civil power load has increased. However, at this time, the power plant inventory has not been started yet, and the coal market continues to be tight. In addition, according to the forecast of the meteorological department, the main rainy area in summer is in the north of China, and the main hydropower areas are likely to suffer from drought, with the decrease of hydropower, the increase of thermal power demand, and the increase of coal consumption, which supports the relatively high coal price.
In terms of supply, in the first ten days, Inner Mongolia coal mine obtained crescent coal pipe ticket, and the output will be released; However, considering the continuous tightening of safety and environmental protection inspection, the space for supply increment is limited. After May 13, after Ramadan, the volume of Indonesian coal is expected to increase, but the demand of surrounding areas is also increasing. It is estimated that the increment of Indonesian coal entering the domestic market is limited. In terms of downstream demand, the superior authorities require the power plant to raise the inventory to a high level before June 15. However, the coal storage situation of most power plants is not optimistic, and the daily consumption is still likely to continue to increase after the maintenance of power plant units. From this point of view, "facing the peak summer" before the replenishment work is still arduous, the coal market demand is expected to be good as a whole.
On the whole, it is expected that during the period from mid late May to early June, the supply and demand pattern of domestic steam coal will continue to maintain a tight balance, and the coal price will mainly run at high level. Even if the price of coal rises and stops, the overall trend is still upward; Affected by factors such as high starting point of coal price, strong downstream demand and support from production areas, it is expected that the coal price rise in the late ten days of this month will be more violent and the duration will be longer.
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