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Tianjin haotiantai Pipe Industry Co., Ltd
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Market risk remains unchanged

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In May, there are still many potential risks and hidden dangers in the special-shaped pipe market. With the release of new special-shaped pipe production capacity and the replacement of illegal production capacity, the contradiction between supply and demand may be further highlighted.
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In the past few years, more than 40 million tons of production capacity of enterprises that have been shut down or bankrupted have been used to replace and construct new projects. The output released after putting into operation will have a new impact on the market. Although the newly-built special-shaped pipe production capacity is not all new production capacity, if concentrated construction and release are carried out in a short period of time, the demand for special-shaped pipe caused by the superimposed epidemic situation will greatly reduce the effectiveness of the supply side reform of the special-shaped pipe industry.
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According to monitoring, 191 enterprises are producing 624 blast furnaces, an increase of 68 over February 20. Among them, 64 enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and surrounding "2 + 26" cities are producing 198 blast furnaces, 31 more than February 20.
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The spread of overseas epidemic and complicated economic situation directly affect the export of special-shaped pipes and the demand of downstream steel enterprises. The impact of foreign epidemic situation on China's special-shaped pipe export will be concentrated in the second quarter, especially the risk of steel used in manufacturing industry falling again.
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It is precisely because the export of manufacturing products and the import of parts and components are greatly affected by the overseas epidemic situation, some enterprises will face certain production reduction risks. However, this will also force the manufacturing industry to accelerate the localization of core components.
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The development of special-shaped pipe industry depends on the downstream industry. In addition to the construction industry, it is the manufacturing industry. China is a big exporter of manufacturing industry. We hope that the support for automobile, household appliances, machinery, container and other industries, whether for export or for expanding domestic demand, can be implemented. Support for foreign trade enterprises should be in place as far as possible to hedge the losses caused by the epidemic. It is very important to strengthen the support for the special-shaped pipe industry chain. As long as the downstream industrial chain can withstand the risks and gradually recover in the second half of the year, the special-shaped pipe industry itself will have a market.
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If the direct and indirect exports of special-shaped pipes are reduced by 1 / 4, the demand for special-shaped pipes will drop by 3.8% this year. If the international epidemic situation continues to deteriorate, the decline in demand will be even greater. If domestic demand expands to offset the impact of export decline, the decline in demand may shrink. Therefore, the change of special-shaped pipe demand depends on the change of international epidemic situation. This will form pressure on the supply-demand relationship of special-shaped pipe market in the later stage.
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If the foreign market is not good after May, the special-shaped pipe price will be unsatisfactory in the first half of the year. If the epidemic situation is delayed to June and July, the impact will be greater. This year, the special-shaped pipe industry and market risk is very high, it is suggested that steel enterprises should make ideological preparation to deal with the decline of the market.
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The current capital situation of steel enterprises is better than in the past, but the high inventory and the resulting pressure are still unresolved. It is widely expected that this will be the normal situation in the steel market this year.
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Affected by the May Day holiday, domestic steel mill inventory and market inventory decline has narrowed. This week, the social inventory of special-shaped pipes was 18.1051 million tons, with a decrease of 658300 tons on a weekly basis; The inventory of sample steel plants was 7.0935 million tons, with a decrease of 412300 tons per week; The total inventory of special-shaped pipes was 25.1986 million tons, with a decrease of 1.0706 million tons per week.
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This year, the peak value of special-shaped pipe inventory increased significantly. If the production intensity of the enterprise exceeds the market demand, the process of de stocking will be very difficult. High inventory may become the normal situation in the special-shaped tube market this year, which takes up a lot of capital and affects the capital turnover of enterprises.
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Do not rule out the possibility that the special-shaped pipe inventory will rise periodically in the later period, the process of removing the special-shaped pipe from the warehouse will be difficult in the past. This will not be conducive to the stability of the special-shaped pipe market. It is hoped that enterprises should keep a close eye on the downstream demand and inventory level and reasonably organize production.
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A market analyst who has been engaged in Steel Research for a long time told the economic observer that the peak decline rate of inventory in a single week has appeared, and the narrowing of the decline in the future market has become a probability event. Production restriction will also be relatively mild, the overall supply pressure of the market will increase, and the industry game is relatively clear, that is, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.
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